{"id":1126,"date":"2018-12-08T23:06:22","date_gmt":"2018-12-08T22:06:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/exponentialdecay.co.uk\/blog\/?p=1126"},"modified":"2024-03-29T20:25:28","modified_gmt":"2024-03-29T19:25:28","slug":"risk-modelling-uncertainty-and-file-format-obsolesence-european-conference-on-digital-archives-2010","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/exponentialdecay.co.uk\/blog\/risk-modelling-uncertainty-and-file-format-obsolesence-european-conference-on-digital-archives-2010\/","title":{"rendered":"Digital Preservation Risk analysis, Uncertainty, and Digital File Format Obsolescence (European Conference on Digital Archives (2010))"},"content":{"rendered":"Full paper: <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/document\/d\/1bGU5-2g9cer8fEqhihh99gb0C6kUjDMG-g2d5pjoH-0\/edit?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The application of risk models to digital file format obsolescence<\/span><\/a>\r\n\r\nI have seen a lot of conversation about modelling uncertainty in the field of digital preservation recently. A paper I wrote for <a href=\"https:\/\/perma.cc\/3AT8-VFCM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">PLANETS<\/a>, to be presented at the <a href=\"https:\/\/perma.cc\/LRD5-E8XZ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">8th European Conference on Digital Archiving<\/a>\u00a0(ECA) all the way back in 2010 talks about this very subject.\r\n\r\nThe synthesis for the paper for the ECA read as follows:\r\n<blockquote><strong>Title:<\/strong> The risky business of digital preservation. The application of risk models to digital file format obsolescence.\r\n\r\n<strong>Topic:<\/strong>\r\n\r\nScientific risk management methodologies as applied to digital file format obsolescence.\r\n\r\n<strong>Content:<\/strong>\r\n\r\nFormat obsolescence is seen as a risk to digital preservation. Terms such as \u201cominous\u201d or \u201cthreat\u201d are readily applied to format obsolescence yet we know from experience that file formats created decades ago are still in mainstream use today. As long as these formats are in mainstream use there is an opportunity for us to handle the possibility of obsolescence \u2013 so where is the risk? While information loss and the impact of the loss of information are very real \u201crisks\u201d for digital preservation, risk itself, in the context of file format obsolescence may be a misnomer. Risk is an emotive term that can conjure the wrong impression in one\u2019s mind perpetuating a subjective response that may lead to inappropriate or unnecessary preservation activities. The National Archives along with the EU Planets Project have undertaken research to look at the risk of format obsolescence in the context of formal, international standard risk models. This will provide an objective and scientific approach to the understanding of risk in the context of format obsolescence and any consequential loss of information.\r\n\r\n<strong>Insights:<\/strong>\r\n\r\nThe potential to re-position the digital preservation community\u2019s view of the real risks associated with digital file format obsolescence.\r\n\r\n<strong>Key words:<\/strong> Digital File Format Obsolescence, Risk Management<\/blockquote>\r\nIt is difficult for folks to find the full paper online, so for those interested in reading it I have made it available as a Google Doc at the following link:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/document\/d\/1bGU5-2g9cer8fEqhihh99gb0C6kUjDMG-g2d5pjoH-0\/edit?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The application of risk models to digital file format obsolescence<\/span><\/a><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\nIt is a little bit clunks, and for my first digital preservation paper it is a little bit green behind the ears. The positives might be that it could provide a useful introduction to risk modelling and uncertainty for some. I use a <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Monte_Carlo_method\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Monte Carlo Simulation<\/a> and various statistical distributions to try and estimate when a file format might become obsolete. There is a little bit about what we could potentially measure in a collection of digital-objects to model, and thus make decisions about how we handle archival material.\r\n\r\nHopefully there&#8217;s something useful to folk in here.\r\n\r\nI am interested in your thoughts, please post them in the comments below.\r\n\r\n<em>To see what The National Archives, UK are doing today with risk modelling and digital archives\/preservation, check out their latest blog (2019-06-03): <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.nationalarchives.gov.uk\/digital-archiving-is-a-risky-business\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">&#8220;Digital Archiving is a Risky Business&#8221;<\/a><\/em> ARA Conference, UK (2019): <a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/331323845_Forthcoming_Safeguarding_the_nation's_digital_memory_towards_a_Bayesian_model_of_digital_preservation_risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Slides.\u00a0<\/a>\r\n\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content --><div 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(2010))&rdquo;<\/span>&hellip;<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<p id=\"pvc_stats_1126\" class=\"pvc_stats total_only  \" data-element-id=\"1126\" style=\"\"><i class=\"pvc-stats-icon small\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" data-prefix=\"far\" data-icon=\"chart-bar\" role=\"img\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" class=\"svg-inline--fa fa-chart-bar fa-w-16 fa-2x\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M396.8 352h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V108.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v230.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm-192 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V140.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v198.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zm96 0h22.4c6.4 0 12.8-6.4 12.8-12.8V204.8c0-6.4-6.4-12.8-12.8-12.8h-22.4c-6.4 0-12.8 6.4-12.8 12.8v134.4c0 6.4 6.4 12.8 12.8 12.8zM496 400H48V80c0-8.84-7.16-16-16-16H16C7.16 64 0 71.16 0 80v336c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h464c8.84 0 16-7.16 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